El Niño on brink of 'rapid collapse' as world poised for new phase of weather
Contrary to initial projections, recent climate models and sub-surface data hint at the potential demise of El Niño.
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The formidable El Niño weather pattern, which rapidly intensified earlier this year, now seems to be teetering on the edge of a significant collapse.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a climate pattern causing changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures, entered its El Niño phase in June 2023, marking the first occurrence in almost four years.
The current El Niño event has shown remarkable strength, with average anomalies peaking at nearly 2.0C during the fall, according to data compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Although readings now hover at 1.9C, the possibility of achieving a "super nino" status, last observed in 2015-16, still exists, albeit with decreasing odds.
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A "super nino" status refers to an exceptionally strong El Niño event, characterized by a significant and prolonged warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This intensified warming can have widespread impacts on global weather patterns, potentially leading to more extreme and disruptive climatic conditions, including severe droughts, heavy rainfall, and altered storm patterns.
Contrary to initial projections, recent climate models and sub-surface data hint at the potential demise of El Niño.NOAA's latest forecast suggests that El Niño might conclude as early as April, a month sooner than previously estimated, with the probability of El Niño conditions persisting dropping from 62% to 37%.
The El Niño weather pattern might go away, but it is unpredictable how it will affect the world's weather because it is unknown exactly when the different weather changes will happen after El Niño is gone.
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When the weather changes from one pattern to another, there's usually a delay before we feel the full effects.
Figuring out exactly when the world will experience the changes linked to a neutral weather pattern is tricky.
Neutral weather patterns can bring more active and unpredictable spring storms and hurricanes compared to times when El Niño is happening, but it all depends on when this switch in weather patterns takes place. The uncertainty makes it challenging for experts to predict what to expect.
The timing of this transition will determine whether the world experiences the effects during the severe weather season, the hurricane season, or potentially beyond.
The imminent decline of El Niño introduces an element of uncertainty into global climate forecasts, emphasizing the intricate and dynamic nature of weather patterns. As scientists closely monitor developments, the world braces for potential shifts that could influence weather conditions in the coming months and beyond.
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