Election in Poland: Republicans, take note, warns Jonathan Saxty
Blink and you would have missed it, but Poland just had its first post-Covid general election, and one with huge implications for Europe, as well as the US, and with big lessons for the Republican Party.
Poland's governing Right-wing Law and Justice party - in power since 2015 - came first in the election, but now with too few seats in the Polish parliament to form a government it seems.
This is despite the fact most Poles back Law and Justice in so many areas, not least its tough stance on immigration, as well as its nationalist economic policies, similar to those of Viktor Orbán in Hungary.
This is where Poland was on really strong ground. Like other countries in Central and Eastern Europe, Poland has stood firm against what it sees as the overly liberal policies of the EU and Western Europe.
This has created a cultural Iron Curtain within Europe. Think of it like the blue states and red states, with Hungary and Poland leading the red states of the east.
So, what went wrong?
Well under Law and Justice, the abortion law tightened considerably, while the party started to push judicial reforms which opponents saw as muscling in on the independence of the courts.
In spite of colossal support for Law and Justice regarding its tough border policies, opposition to political correctness, and general thumbing the nose to the EU, it was on abortion and the judiciary where things turned south.
Now we don't know yet what the future Polish government will look like, but it seems that a centrist coalition could emerge, led by the very pro-EU and very anti-Brexit Donald Tusk.
Does this mean Poland is about to turn liberal?
Not likely.
The Poles are still a conservative nationalist bunch, with Poland long having overtaken Italy as the leading country of European Catholicism.
Still, Law and Justice's drop in support (from 43.6% in 2019 to 35.4 per cent today) could offer a valuable lesson for the Republicans.
A mix of cultural conservatism and nationalist economic policy worked. But perceived encroachments on the judiciary, and sweeping opposition to abortion, alienated even many of its core supporters.
And Poland is a country where Christianity is taken really seriously!
Poland - like Hungary - has also been a lodestar for conservatives across the Western world.
While Poland isn't about to turn into Sweden, this is a big moment, opening the door for a more pro-EU and liberal government, even if that new government must contend with a conservative Polish President and a largely conservative and religious Polish public.
Still, if a country as cohesive and conservative as Poland could see its conservative nationalist ruling party humbled, then conservatives in America and elsewhere ought to be paying very close attention.
